Also impacting the show’s numbers: the fact that it shifted the finale up a week, putting it in direct competition with several highly buzzed about season finales -- and one series ender, NBC’s "The Office."
That explains a lot about Thursday’s low rated finale show, which featured such duet partners as Frankie Valli and Aretha Franklin (via video) and seemed to lean on Idol alums, both finalists like Adam Lambert and Jennifer Hudson and four former and current judges -- Jennifer Lopez, Mariah Carey, Randy Jackson and Keith Urban. Other performers included the more current Jessie J, newcomer Emeli Sande and country trio the Band Perry.
But Adgate believes the biggest harm to "Idol" has been the spin-off series’, be it "The X Factor," also on Fox, or "The Voice." “What made 'Idol' so special was its limited supply,” he says. “And to its credit, Fox didn’t succumb to the financial pressures of running the show in the Fall. But to keep Simon Cowell happy, it created a spin-off series and I don’t think it’s a coincidence that once it came in, you started to see this significant downfall for Idol. … In two years, Idol’s average audience has dropped by 10 million viewers, from 23.1 million viewers to 13.2 million.
Such a dramatic slide could precipitate hefty discounts on ads for next year’s show. This, after a 32 percent drop in rates -- to $432,000 for a 30-second spot during the season -- signals more potential bad news on the horizon along with the possibility of make goods in the form of bonus units or online video.
“Buyers are not going to be tripping over themselves like they had been about paying a premium ad rate for 'Idol,'” says Adgate. “Sure, it’s a top 10 show this year, but with young viewers leaving en masse and next year’s judges up in the air…” Well, as with many past show grads -- season 12 winner Candice Glover and runner-up Kree Harrison now among them -- "Idol" brass might want to keep their expectations in check.
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